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Coronavirus: Social distancing could vastly limit spread as Assembly told 1 in 100 infected could die

'Our health service will fast become unrecognisable. Changes that would have seemed unthinkable weeks ago will become the new norm'

Coronavirus mask

One per cent of people infected by coronavirus will die, the Northern Ireland Assembly has been told.

And the peak of coronavirus could be reduced by 50 per cent and deaths reduced by a third if people implement social distancing and other measures.

That’s according to Health Minister Robin Swann who today outlined new measures as part of the first phase of a health service ‘surge’ plan measures to deal with the growing transmission of COVID-19.

A core aim of the surge plans – covering the immediate period until mid-April – is to prioritise essential services and free up capacity across the system.

These include:

Testing capacity will be expanded to around 800 COVID-19 tests per day. This will enable the HSC to extend the availability of testing to frontline health and social care staff, ensuring that they can continue to deliver vital services.

Exploring radical ways to enhancing workforce capacity. The Minister announced that third year nursing and midwifery students within the last six months of qualifying will be redeployed to clinical care. This will happen in the next 10-14 days and will provide support of up to 880 senior nursing and midwifery students. Final Year Medical Student at QUB Medical School will join the Medical Register 4 months earlier than originally envisaged and will accordingly become immediately available to assist medical teams across NI hospitals.

All Trusts have identified specific wards to provide additional bed capacity to respond to the needs of people with COVID-19 who need hospital admission.

Some 40 additional mechanical ventilators (30 adult units and 10 paediatric units) have been ordered bringing the total available in Northern Ireland to 179 by the end of March.

Plans are in place to rapidly increase the number of critical care beds as necessary.

As outlined by the Minister last week, all Trusts are halting non-urgent appointments investigation and procedures. This action is necessary to allow us to redeploy key staff to support the care of people admitted to hospital because of COVID-19.  Outpatient appointments, day case and elective inpatient services will be maintained for urgent cases. Similarly, surgery for the treatment of cancer and other urgent procedures will continue.

All Trusts will apply appropriate restrictions on the number of visitors that are permitted.

All HSC Trusts will also be focusing sustained attention on ensuring patients who are medically well are safely and rapidly discharged from hospital, with appropriate care arrangements, to ensure hospital beds are available for any increase in admissions.

Routine GP work will be adjusted or suspended in the first number of weeks of the epidemic. Requests for consultations will be telephone triaged and an increased proportion of patients will have advice provided by telephone consultation.

Community pharmacies will endeavour to deliver an increased proportion of prescriptions, hence avoiding the need for people to travel to a community pharmacy.

Services will be prioritised for those most in need i.e. the vulnerable and those at risk of harm. This will include core children’s and young people’s services, older people’s services, mental health services, and learning disability services.

Detailed information and advice on coronavirus is available from the Public Health Agency

The Minister spelled out the plans in a written statement to the Assembly.

He stated: “Our health service will fast become unrecognisable. Changes that would have seemed unthinkable weeks ago will become the new norm. Decisions that would previously have taken months or even years will be taken in hours.

“If social distancing and other measures are implemented by the population, with a combined effect they could reduce the peak by some 50% and reduce deaths by up to a third.

“Planning assumptions also indicate that 8% of infected people will require hospitalisation, 0.7% will require critical care, and 1% will die – although these figures will vary highly depending on age and other health factors.

“There is no doubt that these measures come at a cost. They will be difficult for people to stick to. They will have significant social and economic impacts. But they will save lives.”

The Minister praised staff across the health and social care sector, stating: “I am proud of you and I commit to giving you my full support in the days and months ahead.  The words ‘thank you’ seem woefully inadequate in the circumstances but they still need to be said – on behalf of everyone across our society.”

Mr Swann also appealed to the general public.

He added: “We all must continue to rigidly follow the advice on hand-washing and ‘catch it, bin it, kill it’ when we cough or sneeze and use a tissue.  I cannot emphasise this enough. This will help keep more of our family members, neighbours and friends well and by doing so reduce pressures on our health service.

“As I have already stated publicly, doing the right thing is essential if the health and social care system is to get through this.

“This also includes following all the social distancing guidance to the letter, not just today, tomorrow and next week but throughout the months ahead, for as long as it takes.”

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